Governor Walker? Quest’s Top 5 Predictions For 2010
Before looking at the new predictions lets see how Quest News Editor Mike Fitzpatrick did in 2009. Here were the five forecasts:

1. The UW System Will Finally Get Domestic Partner Benefits
Yes they did, but there was a pleasantly unexpected bonus: so did every other same-sex couple who wanted a limited mix of benefits! My guess was that the benefits package would be bundled in a biennial budget bill that would pass on time for the first time in memory - both of which also turned out to be true. So that’s kind of a point and a half, but I’ll settle for the one.

2. The California Supreme Court Will Void Proposition 8
No they didn’t but the Court did rule in favor of retaining as valid the marriages of the 18,000 gay couples who beat the election day deadline to the altar, something I pointed out in the full original prediction. That’s worth half a point.

3. For 2009, It’s The Economy, Stupid - Not Gay Civil Rights
Obama’s aggressive first year agenda focused on economic stimulus packages, health care insurance reform and Afghanistan surges, not gay equality initiatives. I predicted platitudes, not progress federally in 2009. That’s why Obama was the keynote speaker at the HRC’s signature annual rubber chicken fest last October. Please pass the gravy and score one more point for the predictor.

4. Obama Will Get To Nominate At Least Two Supreme Court Judges
He got one, not two, as Sonia Maria Sotomayor became the first-ever Latina Supreme. That’s another half-point.

5. Cold Economic Climate Causes Consolidation Or Collapse
Though I had focused more on the not-for-profit sector in my prediction, it did turn out that a number of gay entities either closed their doors, or consolidated. Let’s see: Early in 2009 GLAAD absorbed the Commercial Closet in the not-for-profit media watchdog arena. In the business world, the owners of Here! bought the PlanetOut empire for a song, reducing the once mighty biweekly newsmagaine Advocate to an insert in the gay lifestyle monthly Out beginning in 2010. And the largest gay print media conglomerate in the country closed abruptly in November, shuttering what many have considered the gay “paper of record” for decades - the Washington Blade. You can sadly add another point to the tally.

That’s an accuracy score that pushes past the 80% mark - way better than my dear departed prognosticating idol Jeanne Dixon’s less than 5% accuracy ratio. So, once again dabbing on a bit of her brilliant red lip polish, here are my predictions for 2010:

1. The Wisconsin Supreme Court Will Sustain The “Marriage Protection” Constitutional Amendment
The fact that William McConkey’s “two question” case got as far as the state’s top court was pretty amazing to begin with, but court precedents against the question-splitting concept in similar cases in Tennessee and Georgia and the Prop 8 decision in California suggest the court will rule in favor of sustaining the 2006 referendum banning gay marriages and civil unions as valid. After listening to all the arguments, my confidence here is 80%.

2. Wisconsin’s Domestic Partnership Registry - The Fight Ain’t Over Yet
The Wisconsin Supremes may have dismissed Julaine Appling and the Wisconsin Family Action group’s lawsuit, but it was not on the merits of their arguments. Legally the WFA had tried to cut to the head of the judicial line. I expect the suit to begin again at the circuit court level, where it should have begun in the first place. I also suspect we will find the timing of the WFA lawsuit’s reintroduction will coincide nicely with the 2010 election cycle, where the registry and the way it was enacted will provide fodder for GOP candidates from gubernatorial hopeful Scott Walker to every Assembly candidate seeking to overturn the Republicans’ loss of the lower house of the Wisconsin legislature in the Obama landslide two years ago. Looking back on Julaine’s long history of coordination with the GOP as the de facto chair of the party’s get out the “holier than thou” vote committee, my confidence here is 80%.

3. Democrats Will Retain Control Of Congress in 2010
No matter how much Americans may be disenchanted with federal Democrat leadership at the end of 2009, their distaste for Republican rule is even stronger. And Republicans still are seen as ultimately responsible for triggering the economic downturn that now churns most of our national discontent. We may see the beginnings of an independent movement arise that will eschew the hot button issues of both the left and the right, but election laws and campaign funding issues will limit any rise in non-major party affiliated candidates to a handful at best in 2010 races. The Democrats will lose some seats but may even retain their super-majority in the Senate. November’s far away so my confidence here is 60%.

4. Federal DOMA Repeal? No Way, But “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”? Maybe
As gay marriage opponents are always happy to point out, every time gay marriage gets to the ballot box it loses. New York Representative Nadler’s proposed repeal of the federal Defense of Marriage Act will go nowhere in 2010. However, the tide of public opinion has turned in favor of gay service members being able to serve openly. Combine that with the military’s need for more cannon fodder on the killing fields of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” military ban looks ready for dishonorable discharge. However, if Taps for the ban is not played by early summer, expect it to remain in effect until after the November election cycle is over. My confidence here on DOMA repeal is 90%. Call it 60% for DADT.

5. Governor Scott Walker
Again, its almost a year away, but the first open seat race for Wisconsin’s chief executive will come down to the two men now leading Milwaukee: County Executive Scott Walker and Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker has been elected twice in what used to be considered one of the most Democrat-leaning areas of Wisconsin. Barrett has lost political capital in the recent attempt to take control of the Milwaukee School Board. It sits poorly with minorities locally - including some in the gay community - and progressives statewide.
  Outside of Milwaukee and their respective party faithful, both men are essentially ciphers at this point to most of the electorate. Despite all the negative campaigning to come, both men start out as likeable and middle-of-the-road to the average Wisconsin voter. The sour economy and historic Republican electoral discipline statewide add two thumbs to the GOP side of the scale. Expect to see the truly polarizing Mark Neumann to drop out before the Spring primary and the still well-loved Tommy Thompson to be at Walker’s side during the Fall campaign. My confidence here is 70%.

That’s Quest’s psychic look into what will be an interesting 2010 even if we never see another political tea bagging party (as opposed to the gay kind) again. What’s your take on 2009 and our prognostications for the coming year? Join in the online discussion by pointing your browsers to Quest on Facebook. You’ll find a link at: www.quest-online.com (You must become a fan of Quest to add to the dialogue. If you’re already a Facebook member its easy!)